longmayyourun Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 Since the US power grid is tied into the Canadian Grid, we are certainly not immune to this. I believe our power system was more stable 50 years ago, before sattelites and computer control. Whirlpoolhunter http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,478024,00.html Powerful Solar Storm Could Shut Down U.S. for Months A new study from the National Academy of Sciences outlines grim possibilities on Earth for a worst-case scenario solar storm. Damage to power grids and other communications systems could be catastrophic, the scientists conclude, with effects leading to a potential loss of governmental control of the situation. The prediction is based in part on a major solar storm in 1859 that caused telegraph wires to short out in the United States and Europe, igniting widespread fires. It was perhaps the worst in the past 200 years, according to the new study, and with the advent of modern power grids and satellites, much more is at risk. "A contemporary repetition of the [1859] event would cause significantly more extensive (and possibly catastrophic) social and economic disruptions," the researchers conclude. • Click here to visit FOXNews.com's Space Center. 'Command and control might be lost' When the sun is in the active phase of its 11-year cycle, it can unleash powerful magnetic storms that disable satellites, threaten astronaut safety, and even disrupt communication systems on Earth. The worst storms can knock out power grids by inducing currents that melt transformers. Modern power grids are so interconnected that a big space storm — the type expected to occur about once a century — could cause a cascade of failures that would sweep across the United States, cutting power to 130 million people or more in this country alone, the new report concludes. Such widespread power outages, though expected to be a rare possibility, would affect other vital systems. "Impacts would be felt on interdependent infrastructures with, for example, potable water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel resupply and so on," the report states. Outages could take months to fix, the researchers say. Banks might close, and trade with other countries might halt. "Emergency services would be strained, and command and control might be lost," write the researchers, led by Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado in Boulder. "Whether it is terrestrial catastrophes or extreme space weather incidents, the results can be devastating to modern societies that depend in a myriad of ways on advanced technological systems," Baker said in a statement released with the report. Stormy past Solar storms have had significant effects in modern time: — In 1989, the sun unleashed a tempest that knocked out power to all of Quebec, Canada. — A remarkable 2003 rampage included 10 major solar flares over a two-week period, knocking out two Earth-orbiting satellites and crippling an instrument aboard a Mars orbiter. "Obviously, the sun is Earth's life blood," said Richard Fisher, director of the Heliophysics division at NASA. "To mitigate possible public safety issues, it is vital that we better understand extreme space weather events caused by the sun's activity." "Space weather can produce solar storm electromagnetic fields that induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, causing wide-spread blackouts and affecting communication cables that support the Internet," the report states. "Severe space weather also produces solar energetic particles and the dislocation of the Earth's radiation belts, which can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning and weather forecasting." Rush to prepare The race is on for better forecasting abilities, as the next peak in solar activity is expected to come around 2012. While the sun is in a lull now, activity can flare up at any moment, and severe space weather — how severe, nobody knows — will ramp up a year or two before the peak. Some scientists expect the next peak to bring more severe events than other recent peaks. "A catastrophic failure of commercial and government infrastructure in space and on the ground can be mitigated through raising public awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure and developing advanced forecasting capabilities," the report states. "Without preventive actions or plans, the trend of increased dependency on modern space-weather sensitive assets could make society more vulnerable in the future." The report was commissioned and funded by NASA. Experts from around the world in industry, government and academia participated. It was released this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwl Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 that's ok, I will just use up all the rations I put in my bomb shelter a few years back for Y2K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammercarp Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 Just goes to show you that we have not conquered everything yet. The article makes sense. Why would anyone think this is funny. The threat to our modern society is real. It happened before and we should prepare for it. I guess we have become very arrogant when it comes to nature and what it can unleash on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwl Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 maybe it will be time to get back to nature a bit.....in Canada we call that..umm., what's that word I am looking for..camping I think, ya that's the one. What is this threat to modern society that has happened before???? Nothing in my family's last say 150 years of history has changed all that much in so called "every day life" I couldn't give a rats ass if some satelite in space gets knocked out like in 2003 or whatever, it didn't affect anyone I even remotely know in any way shape or form. If it happens, or whatever, it happens,I won't miss much of the hub-bub if I load up the family, head to the lake and spend a couple weeks fishing....if there is no gas to get home..oh well, stranded at the lake..oh...bummer , if there is no gas,guess I will have to use one of my tinners for a row boat to get around if you guys go "fishing" around the internet enough I am sure you will find a hundred more ways that the earth is doomed in the next few years.....floods from the ice caps,a giant meteor,solar flares, and the list could go on and on and on........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Andrews Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 Jack I don't think this is as much of a threat to Earth as it may be to society. The chaos that would result from the closing of cogeco internet and Tim Hortan's alone would severely impact us all. If you ask me its sad to see that even sportsman have lost touch with how fragile our social systems are and the disconnect with what's real (nature) and what's man made and not naturally sustainable. That's the message we need to drive through society to get them to give a dam about the environment and the need to maintain essential skills like hunting and fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigugli Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 People in today's society do not want to learn any traditional skills. They see no need for it, and cannot comprehend the value in the skill sets that focus on self-sufficiency, survival, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwl Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 People in today's society do not want to learn any traditional skills. They see no need for it, and cannot comprehend the value in the skill sets that focus on self-sufficiency, survival, etc... it is funny both you guys say that..a bit off topic perhaps, but then again maybe not my wife loves to bake,knit,crochet,knows how to make clothes ect, and we always comment on how some of the craft stuff needed for her to persue her hobbies is hard to find and how many people we know in the say 45 and under bracket that don't even do things like this any more or even know how. Silly, well maybe not so silly things like this are just no passed down any more or younger people just seem to have no interest in the "ready made" world to learn these skills or take on as a hobby. We all live with a load of modern day amenities we all take for granted,myself,I can take a pretty bare bones approach to living if I have to, I am a simple guy in general, sure I have my toys that come with my fishin hobby and my music hobby, but when it boils down to it,I could live in a tent,use my row boat or canoe to get out on the water, and play the acoustic guitar by the fire. I know my family would get by the best we can, and for that matter,would ride it out and make the best of it as well....my wife has the means and materials on hand to knit us a sweater or blanket if needed,I have the means to catch or pick us dinner of needed, if we where going to be without power for a super long amount of time, I have the know-how to preserve/smoke/can food if needed, for entertainment we have no problem playing cards,dice, or board games..my family and a few other's I know could get by just fine and ride it out,perhaps together with some others I know, I am not saying it would be a walk in the park, or that easy for that matter, just saying we could do it, and get by just about as fine as you could in that type of situtation, heck even make an adventure out of it for a while and when the lights come back on and it's time to head back home to ride out the aftermath we would be not that worse for wear. Like I commented before..some Canadians call that type of thing..."camping" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerchly Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 I still believe our biggest threat to this planet is man made ......called nuclear war . The media is known to blast things out of proportion to get readers attention & people begin to lose interest in anything they print .......But we still should have some sort of plan in case the "what ifs" become a reality........ If the solar storm happens to be "the worst case scenario" & knocks out satelites we would lose our missle defence warning systems & could have grave consequences. We have become so dependant on computer technology , it would be complete chaos out there, world wide . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knightfisher Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 I still believe our biggest threat to this planet is man made ......called nuclear war .The media is known to blast things out of proportion to get readers attention & people begin to lose interest in anything they print .......But we still should have some sort of plan in case the "what ifs" become a reality........ If the solar storm happens to be "the worst case scenario" & knocks out satelites we would lose our missle defence warning systems & could have grave consequences. We have become so dependant on computer technology , it would be complete chaos out there, world wide . Us tinfoil hat guys would really be lost without computers. All these conspiracy sites and no way to access them.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Andrews Posted January 10, 2009 Report Share Posted January 10, 2009 Jack dare I say you are one of the few and even I would need your and bigugli's help. Oh and its not you and me,.................... it really is the rest of the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammercarp Posted January 10, 2009 Report Share Posted January 10, 2009 They are not talking about just a few satellites getting knocked out. What they are warning about is the entire elerctrical grid in N. America going down. What happens is a charge is induced into the overhead wires and it fries them and all the equipment , transformers etc. This has happened before. What makes it worse is that power grids are all inter connected and it could result in a blackout lasting months all over N. America. That is no joke. Living in third world conditions is no fun. Just check out the places where people live like that. Sure playing survivor guy for a while would be fun but what happens when your kid needs to get the hospital? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigugli Posted January 10, 2009 Report Share Posted January 10, 2009 They are not talking about just a few satellites getting knocked out. What they are warning about is the entire elerctrical grid in N. America going down. What happens is a charge is induced into the overhead wires and it fries them and all the equipment , transformers etc. This has happened before. What makes it worse is that power grids are all inter connected and it could result in a blackout lasting months all over N. America. That is no joke. Living in third world conditions is no fun. Just check out the places where people live like that. Sure playing survivor guy for a while would be fun but what happens when your kid needs to get the hospital? To paraphrase Darwin, the species either adapts or becomes extinct. Some day the human species will be hard pressed by nature and all the fancy technology in the world will not be what saves us. It will be our ability, or inability, to adapt. It may sound harsh and ruthless, but nature is full of cruel realities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammercarp Posted January 10, 2009 Report Share Posted January 10, 2009 To paraphrase Darwin, the species either adapts or becomes extinct. Some day the human species will be hard pressed by nature and all the fancy technology in the world will not be what saves us. It will be our ability, or inability, to adapt. It may sound harsh and ruthless, but nature is full of cruel realities. Solar storms are a " cruel reality". Why not have a power grid adapted to cope with one. Makes sense doesn't it. There were warnings about Katrina made by qualified people and look at New Orleans now . Would you want to camp out there and practice your survival skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwl Posted January 10, 2009 Report Share Posted January 10, 2009 I am sure they will figure out a way to try and adapt to the situation...did anyone go out and get a lifetime supply of whatever it happened to be during the threat of the Y2K bug which was also supposed to knock out the world's power grid ect...??? no one I know got all hyped up about it. And no one I know is certainly going to sit around all stressed out using up the world's supply of anti-anxiety drugs trying to thwart this either. If something like this where to happen, we would have to deal with it all, some of us would just me more equipped to handle the situation than others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted January 10, 2009 Report Share Posted January 10, 2009 As long as you have plenty of 9V batteries the phone will work, as long as the phone company cooperates Will fill you in when the time comes. Can you please connect me to............ I do wonder how the fact that someone brought this up could cause quite the stir It was only brought up as something to think about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longmayyourun Posted January 10, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2009 The point I was trying to make is that we should as individuals be prepared for emergencies, be they natural or manmade. The harsh winters of Canada cause us special problems due to heat concerns. A good website http://getprepared.ca/index-eng.aspx provides some basic information on being prepared for an emergency. Most of us on this forum, would most likely have many of the supplies mentioned. A 24 hour power outage in the middle of winter could pose problems. This was revealed in the Ice Storm in Kingston a few years ago. People were flocking to homes with gas fireplaces (that dont need electricity to run the fans, or wood stoves or fireplaces. A good suggestion would be a quality winter sleeping bag for everyone in the family. Whirlpool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammercarp Posted January 10, 2009 Report Share Posted January 10, 2009 There is no comparison between Y2K and what has been discussed here. You are comparing apples to oranges. Y2K was based on nonesense.This is not nonesense it is based in scientific fact and solar storms have caused power outages before. Sleeping bags will not get you through 3 months of winter without electrical power. Katrina is a much closer analogy. People ignored natures ability to damage human built systems because of stupid arrogance. Talk about an inconvenient truth. Where's Al when you need him. I thought I might add this that I copied and pasted. "On March 13, 1989, in the early morning hours, technicians at the Hydro-Quebec power company in Montreal were in their control room as usual, watching the maplike mimic board that allows them to monitor the condition of their power grid. That grid supplies electricity not only to Montreal but to all of Quebec Province, to a total of 6 million people. At 2:44 A. M., a light started flashing on the mimic board: there was trouble up north. A voltage regulator had shut down on one of the main lines that run from the La Grande hydroelectric complex in northern Quebec to Montreal and other cities in the south. As the startled technicians looked on helplessly, a cascade of broken circuits rippled around the province, cutting off the rest of Hydro-Quebec's generators. In all, it had taken less than 90 seconds for power to collapse in the entire grid. The mimic board was now blinking like a Christmas tree. But all over Quebec the lights were out. "The blackout cost Hydro-Quebec more than $10 million, and it cost the power company's customers tens if not hundreds of millions. Although power was restored to most of the province within nine hours, some places remained dark for days. In the post-mortem analysis, Hydro-Quebec engineers had little trouble figuring out what had happened. Their conclusion was reassuring in one sense, scary in another. The blackout had not been caused by a design flaw, nor by operator negligence, nor indeed by any human error at all. The source of the problem had been the sun." Reprinted courtesy of Discover Magazine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwl Posted January 10, 2009 Report Share Posted January 10, 2009 People been around alot longer than electricity, the internet, and every so called fancy little gizmo that is probably in your house car or pocket right now. Heck for that matter my oldest daughter's great grandparents who lived in Webbwood Ont didn't even have electricity in thier whole lifetime living on that property and what used to be thier parent's farm until around 1985..think it would bother them if the power went out???? I doubt it...3 generations of people where born and raised there in the range of about 150 years that I know of so we have, the original say great-great grandparents of my daughter settled in there,her great grandmother who then married her great grandfather whom bought the farm and settled in to start a family of thier own,grandparents and great aunts and uncles where all raised there, went off to have families of thier own and then thier children all came back to visit ect at the farm. My daughter's mother always had great stories of going there, and commented alot about the fact that what was her grandparents didn't even have electricity until she was a teenager. Lack of "human built systems" or the crumble of such infrastructure is not going to have a drastic affect on a family raised like that . 3 months of something like no power in the winter is just a regular day for 4-5 generations of people in that family for example. My distant relatives from 4-5 generations back all lived like this as well although where "modernized" alot quicker than the 1980's. You know what's funny......it's the younger generations that will not be able to deal with a so called "crisis situation" like that scenario...for the older generations, ...for alot of them it will be reminder of how everything was when they where younger and they will be the ones who get by without crumbling.....some may even say..."see..I told you so..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammercarp Posted January 10, 2009 Report Share Posted January 10, 2009 You have a good point there JWL. I knew a couple from Toronto, who's only source of light during the blackout we had some years ago was a cell phone. I also know a guy who told me the best christmas he had was when they got electricity and turned it on just as his father came in the door. But the truth is it would be no picnic for everyone and like I said. What do you do if your kid has to go to the hospital, perform backwoods surgery yourself? I think it would be much better to protect what we have built than trying to play little house on the prairie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longmayyourun Posted January 10, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2009 "Sleeping bags will not get you through 3 months of winter without electrical power" Very true Hammercarp, I could not agree with you more. What I was suggesting is that they would help in a 48 hour situation. Katrina is a good analogy. The basic needs are the same, water, shelter and food. As I mentioned earlier, keep some supplies on hand and dont lose sleep over it.. Whirlpool.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigugli Posted January 10, 2009 Report Share Posted January 10, 2009 Solar storms are a " cruel reality". Why not have a power grid adapted to cope with one. Makes sense doesn't it. There were warnings about Katrina made by qualified people and look at New Orleans now . Would you want to camp out there and practice your survival skills. Every few months another group of scientists will alert us to another "potential" disaster scenario. Every few years we hear about the inevitable death from above of an asteroid or meteor. I do not deny the possibilities. Should we set in place contingencies and countermeasures for all these scenarios? What is the price tag? Who foots the bill? What about Armageddon? have we put the necessary measures in place to prevent it? Considering the inability of our societies to change their wasteful ways, make a real effort to curb pollution, or end third world starvation. What makes this more important? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammercarp Posted January 10, 2009 Report Share Posted January 10, 2009 Every few months another group of scientists will alert us to another "potential" disaster scenario. Every few years we hear about the inevitable death from above of an asteroid or meteor. I do not deny the possibilities. Should we set in place contingencies and countermeasures for all these scenarios? What is the price tag?Who foots the bill? What about Armageddon? have we put the necessary measures in place to prevent it? Considering the inability of our societies to change their wasteful ways, make a real effort to curb pollution, or end third world starvation. What makes this more important? Not every scenario, but this one yes. We would foot the bill for protecting the power grid. Who else? We have curbed pollution. Look at Hamilton Harbour and lot of other places. We are ending third world hunger. China, India and Brazil have changed dramatically. Armageddon is a religious beleif, nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted January 10, 2009 Report Share Posted January 10, 2009 I agree that we do need to keep the hospitals, and emergency services up and running. That's not a hard feet to do as it's the electronics that are effected by these solar storms. In my line of work I deal with these everyday and I know they have bypasses for them as well, so keeping certain places with power is not the issue. The issue is keeping everyone safe, that's a different story as we all know there are some people out there that would take advantage of said situations for personal gain That's the really scarey part of all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammercarp Posted January 10, 2009 Report Share Posted January 10, 2009 In 2007 NASA sent three satelites into earth orbit with the express purpose of monitoring solar storms which they knew would be happening over the next few years. They are early warning systems for these events. So hopefully we will get a warning to prepare for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigugli Posted January 10, 2009 Report Share Posted January 10, 2009 I hardly consider nuclear armaggeddon to be religious hocum. This planet has not seen a year of peace since the end of WW II. There has been continual war. So much for the U.N. and world peace. Safeguarding the world's power grids and redesigning them to meet this potential threat is more than just spending a few million here and there. There has been recommendations for decades now to take our major power corridors and transformers underground. The delivery of hydro to new urban development is primarily underground, and the cost is covered in the cost of the new home. Most major cities have established vast underground networks in their commercial cores. Yet for all that, the grid sprawls acroos the landscape because it is far cheaper to build, manage and maintain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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